You can shape your future with clarity. You just have to be willing to take little bets.
Recently, I’ve been speaking to a lot of founders and growth leaders at AI companies. The space is moving so quickly. There’s a new change every 2 months. Just when I was getting comfortable with Claude Code, I’m here wondering, “do I need to be using the new GPT-5?” Well, I’m already using it. But is it better than Claude? For what use case?
Apparently, I’m not alone. Even the founders, developers, and technical leads at AI startups, building these technologies, have these same issues. One of them told me “with things moving this fast, I just don’t know whether I’m taking the right bets and using my time effectively.”
I guess we’re all in this together.
The name of the game is focus and agency.
The noise is getting “mucher”:
There’s just too much noise out there.
It hasn’t helped that the same generative technology I’m talking about has made content and product creation a lot easier. This is great for builders and creators. We can end up in a state of recreation – creating for the sake of creation (although this comes at a cost in terms of all the energy used to give you answers when you prompt an LLM, but that’s another story).
This creation overload has flooded the communication channels.
You end up with more questions than answers:
“Where should I be posting?”
“Do I post three times on LinkedIn?”
“How frequently?”
“Wait, is that where my customers are?”
“Is email marketing dead?”
Then you rush off to ask the LLM but it gives you the same generic answer it’s giving everyone, with outdated information.
When you execute (if you overcome the noise barrier), you end up adding to the noise.
Taking the right bets involves real-time feedback from human beings.
Not some machine that caresses your ego and says “great questions” each time you ask it for an answer. The only way you get out of the “vibe creating” loop and stop wasting energy is to actually test out little bets, in the real world, to see what works.
Then you fine tune from there.
You have to be systematic about this form of experimentation and know how to measure success.
Taking the right bets starts with strategic focus, and this involves avoiding distractions
When you’re building a business or trying to further your career, every go-to-market activity points towards the same strategic end goal.
You can get clarity to stay motivated over the next 30 days.
Get 30 Days of Clarity in 30 Minutes
Clarity + Agency = New intelligence.
I recently listened to a podcast and learned about an interesting book called Active Inference by Karl Friston, a British neuroscientist. Although, there isn’t a consensus out there about how we define “human intelligence,” Friston uses nature’s design in his logic. The author’s argument is that real intelligence is the ability to minimize the surprise of their sensory observations.
If everything in the future does not surprise you, every thing you predict comes to pass. Your current expectations match future reality. Isn’t that the type of intelligence we all want?
I’ll pay for that type of clarity.
We might not be able to minimize that to zero but I have a framework that can help you reduce it from where you are now.
It’s a 3-step framework of clarity, choice, and commitment.
It will give you clarity, direction, and keep you motivated in a committed amount of time.
This newsletter is a working session, so grab a cup of coffee or tea, and we’ll do this together.
Whip out your favorite writing device (Google docs, apple notes). This is geared towards anyone starting a business, growing one, or anyone in a career transition.
Copy and paste the questions below and answer each one.
Spend 10 minutes on each one
Here it is
1. Clarity (get your map)
If you don’t know your end goal, you’ll never get to it.
The goal here is to lock in what matters the most right now. This exercise really boils down to two things:
- Where you are now, and
- where you want to go.
Everything else, are just questions to clarify these two points.
There are three versions of these set of questions for people that:
- Growing a business (with existing customers)
- Starting a business (pre-customer)
- Seeking a new job
Choose the version that best suits you and answer the following questions to set up your strategic intent map.
Growing a business version:
Primary Target Segment (10 min)
(Identify where they want to go and what “success” looks like.)
- What’s the one result that will make the next 12 months a success?
- Who are your top 3 most valuable customers now?
- What do they have in common (industry, triggers, budget signals)?
- What makes them want to act now rather than later?
- Where do they already spend money to fix that pain?
- What pain is most urgent for them?
Opportunity Areas (10 min)
- Where are you currently winning faster/larger?
- What segments have the biggest deal size or LTV?
- If you doubled down on one thing for 6 months, where would you see the fastest revenue lift?
- Which gaps match your strengths?
Pain – Promise – Proof (10 min)
- Pain: Urgent, costly problem:
- Promise: Specific transformation you can claim:
- Proof: Evidence (stories, data, testimonials)
Starting a business version:
Primary Target Segment (10 min)
(Identify where they want to go and what “success” looks like.)
- What’s the one result that will make the next 12 months a success?
- Who most urgently feels the problem you solve? (role, industry, environment)
- What events or conditions would make them feel this pain acutely?
- Who has both the budget and agency to act on the problem?
- Where are they already looking for solutions? (conferences, communities, tools)
Opportunity Areas (10 min)
- Which segments are actively spending money in related areas?
- Who has the shortest path to adopting your solution?
- Which market gaps are underserved by current competitors?
Pain – Promise – Proof (10 min)
- Pain: What problem do they complain about most in public forums, surveys, or interviews?
- Promise: What transformation would feel like a win from their perspective?
- Proof: What analogs or case examples (from other markets) show it’s solvable and valuable?
Career transition (new job) version:
Primary Targets (10 min)
(Identify where they want to go and what “success” looks like.)
- What’s the one result that will make the next 12 months a success?
- What is the specific role or position you want to move into next?
- Which industry or type of company do you want to work in?
- What are your non-negotiable criteria for this next role? (e.g., salary, location, work style, growth path)
- What timeline are you aiming for to make this move?
Opportunity Areas (10 min)
(Find where you can gain an edge in the market.)
- What skills or experience do you already have that match the target role?
- What gaps exist between your current profile and your target role?
- Which network connections could help you open doors or get referrals?
- What projects, certifications, or portfolio work could quickly boost your credibility?
Pain – Promise – Proof (10 min)
(Clarify your positioning when you approach employers)
- Pain: What are the biggest challenges your target companies are facing right now?
- Promise: What results or outcomes can you deliver that would solve those pains?
- Proof: What past achievements or metrics prove you can deliver on that promise?
2. Choice (decide the route)
It’s not only what you choose to do, it’s also what you choose not to do.
You build momentum from clarity by making tough choices and sticking to them.
There’s always going to be noise and a wide variety of opportunities tugging at your arm as you go down this journey. You have to define growth bets worth your time. When you make a choice, every time you take action on that choice, you remind yourself why it’s worthwhile.
The name of the game is avoiding shiny objects that dilute your impact.
Here’s how to pick a small number of strategic bets.
- List all opportunities (at least 5) you could chase from your opportunity area (e.g. reach out to network form introduction to 10 companies.)
- Rank each opportunity across the BET metric: Benefit, Ease, and Trust
- Benefit: Overall value or payoff if successful
- Ease: Simplicity of execution given current resources
- Trust: Confidence in expected outcome
| Opportunities | Benefit (0-10) | Ease (0-10) | Trust (0-10) | BET Score |
| opportunity 1 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 9x7x6 = 378 |
| opportunity 2 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5x9x8 = 360 |
| opportunity 3 | … | … | … | … |
| … | … | … | … | … |
| … | … | … | … | … |
| … | … | … | … | … |
- Multiply the value in each row for benefit, ease, and trust to get the BET score.
- Choose the 3 highest BET scores.
- Execute on them in the next 3 months.
3. Commitment (start driving)
Now you have to commit your bets, but not to GitHub, to real life.
Translate focus into immediate action
- Milestone: For each bet, what is the first milestone? (30 days, 60, 90 days)
- Accountability: Who is accountable?
- If you are on your own: who’s keeping you accountable.
- No-go List: what are the “no-go” rules (what you won’t do)?
Use this list to be clear on what the day-to-day actions need to be over the next four weeks.
Going on a journey with your map
You can print your map out and paste it on your wall as a reminder.
Now you have the following:
- Strategic intent
- Top 3 bets
- First milestones
- Accountability
- No-go list
After executing in 30 days, reassess where you land. Did your expectation match reality? Double down or make more new bets.
It’s simple.
Stick to the script, start taking action.
Yours truly,
Nifemi
